adam-lambert-lookalikesEither you like Lambert, or you don’t.

Earlier in the season, it was easy to just vote for someone else. You had the adorable tattooed Megan Corkrey, or JT Wannabe Matt Giraud or the bible thumpin’ Danny Gokey to go with.

Now, there remains only one alternative. Kris Allen.

So basically you have a shitload of fans who think Adam is awesome, and who have thought that way since the whole shebang started. And then you have an equal number of folks who think he’s too dramatic, too faux, too fake.

When you add up all the individual people who have purposely chosen against Adam Lambert, and condense them into one voting bloc, it’s clear. Lambert loses.

So my prediction: Kris Allen is this season’s American Idol winner.

Yes, I’m aware that I picked Allen to lose about a dozen times already. That doesn’t change the math. It makes my prediction abilities suspect, but it doesn’t alter the fact that everyone knew Adam was a front-runner early on, and still, countless people voted against him a variety of reasons. Tonight, the abacus sways in Allen’s direction.

UPDATE: Nailed it bitches.

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Watching AI right now, gonna try and hit the highlights (and lowlights) live…

Lil Rounds – This is the first performance of Lil’s that didn’t really connect. Pitch was off, seemed uncomfy, I dunno… just didn’t make it.

Anoop – ((yawn)). All of the judges like it, but just…boring, I thought.

Scott MacIntyre – Always boring, but he has an electri- WTF WAS THAT NOTE HE HIT? Sounded like his tonsils wrapped around his neck?!?!

Matt Giraud – Gets some love from the judges. Looks like he’s taking the Justin Timberlake comparisons to heart by wearing a fedora.

Adam Lambert – Always dramatic, dude. Always dramatic.

Prediction to be Voted Off (10:55pm) – Kris Allen. Long-shot pick on my part, let me explain my reasoning.

  1. I expected Kris to get the boot a month ago.
  2. I think all the AI contestants serve a distinct niche, except for Scott, Kris and Matt- they all have a similar fan base. Someone has to go.
  3. Kris is really talented, but his fan base hasn’t shown a ton of support.
  4. He was toward the beginning of the show. Early contestants never get the benefit of the doubt.
  5. He’s not visually impaired. As we’ve seen so far, this buys extra AI time.

Cumulative Results This Season:  Scott MacIntyre actually voted out. I’m now 11 out of 15 for the season. Kris is a constant monkey-wrench for me, as I think he’s good but don’t believe that he has the support amongst the masses. Never fear, I’m gonna get on my previous diet of beer, wine, KFC and tobacco for next week’s picks. Polluting my body seems to be the path to making accurate AI picks.

Random thoughts…

Danny Gokey plays it safe and hits a homer. A guy who lost his wife, singing a pop-country song about loss that’s already sold a million records? Sweet. Plus, the dude can flat-out sing.

Allison Iraheta’s guitar playing was rough in the beginning, but the audience probably didn’t notice. She’s talented though. Too bad she has a 0% chance of winning.

Scott MacIntyre plays a great- but wimpy- Billy Joel song. It suits him. I’m convinced that Scott has absolutely no testosterone in his body, so if he sticks to this genre he’ll do fine. Next up – Scott MacIntyre does Jack Johnson!

Matt Giraud goes in the audience, sings, and kicks ass. My dark horse candidate for winning it, and the judges savage him. THIS GUY is GOOD. What the F@(%?!?

Lil Rounds, the kid and Randy Jackson? Adorable. No way she gets voted off.

Adam Lambert. Did Abdul really compare him to Jagger and Steven Tyler?

Prediction (1:49 am): The Left On Lanier Elimination Formula™  predicts Megan Joy Corkrey getting the boot. Baby, I am POSITIVE you’re heading home. Bet the farm on it. The weird pronunciation has grown tiresome, and while you make my grundle grin and my taint faint, your good looks and sweet smile can only last so long.

Cumulative Results: 10 out of 13 this season. Megan Joy hits the bricks, and seems chipper about it. This makes Simon angry. Don’t make Simon angry. 11 out of 14 this season.

A complete recalibration of the Left On Lanier Elimination Formula™ this week, due to going 1 for 3 on the past two eliminations. I think I’ve found the crucial ingredient missing, and have added that religiously to my diet.

idol

 Before we recap, let’s look at Left On Lanier long-term likelihoods (alliteration, bitches!)

  1. Adam Lambert
  2. Danny Gokey (it’s a virtual tie for #1)
  3. Lil Rounds
  4. Matt Giraud
  5. Allison Iraheta
  6. No one else has a shot.

Also, when Paula Abdul delivers one of her rare negative reviews, her voice cracks and she appears- I dunno, scared? Intimidated? C’mon Paula, you’ve been banging this show out for seven years.

Adam Lambert dropped some of the pretentious High School Musical crap and dressed like he was auditioning for Ocean’s 11 instead. This is a compliment. Looked sharp. Sounded sharp. He added some George Clooney and subtracted some Boy George.

Megan Joy Corkrey rumbles my nether regions, but her pronunciation problems are getting tiresome.

Matt Giraud is awesome. Justin Timberlake, please pick up the white courtesy phone.

Lil Rounds is coasting. No worries. She’s the most talented girl remaining.

Prediction to be voted off (12:10 am): Michael Sarver. It’s a shame that this hard-working blue-collar boy won’t be continuing this season. He’s better than Scott and Megan, but he isn’t visually impaired (so, no sympathy votes) and he doesn’t have tits (another negative, cause they could help).

UPDATE (10:21 pm): My diet of alcohol, tobacco and fried chicken appeared to correct my earlier prognostication errors. NAILED IT- MICHAEL SARVER VOTED OFF. Although I wonder if the drama at the end of the show (Simon saying, “we haven’t decided yet!”) is an attempt to wrench more drama out of the process. Never mind. I’m just jaded. But if this is a harbinger of things to come, where every week the judges furiously beat the clock! to decide somebody’s fate! before the end of the convicted’s song! I’m gonna be really disappointed.

Cumulative Results This Season: 9 out of 12 this season. 10 out of 13 this season, 1 out of 1 tonight. I’m back, baby, like Travolta in “Pulp Fiction” or Aerosmith when Run DMC called back in 1985.

adam-lambert-lookalikesSeriously, what’s this guy’s problem?

It’s like he’s auditioning for the goth version of Rent or doing a fruity Trent Reznor (thanks Randy!) imitation.

Just not impressed with this smug little turd and his falsetto “Ring of Fire” BS. Dude, drop the emo-kid-at-the-mall wardrobe and quit trying to make every song into the next historic musical drama.

So far this year, I’m 3 out of 3.

Predicted to move onto the next round:

  • Adam Lambert (musical theatre emo-ish pretty boy)
  • Allison Iraheta (red-haired 16 year old rocker chick)
  • Matt Giraud (dueling piano player)

(Almost threw Norman Gentle in that third spot. Pretty unsure of who that third person will be).

9:01 pm Update: 2 out of 3. Should’ve listened to Mike-El, who nailed it in the comments this week.

2009 Season Batting Average: 5 out of 6, a very respectable 83%.

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