Craig Lutz, nothing personal man, but there’s no way you can win this race.

Remember, we predicted you to WIN in a runoff, so we’re not being partisan here. Just trying to lay the groundwork so you’re not shocked on Run-off Election Night.

There are 28,000 folks living in Hall County Commission District 1. About 22% of those folks actually voted. You came in second place.

Those numbers are gonna decrease. When the numbers decrease, it normally affects both sides equally- unless one party has a huge cash advantage.

You have no such advantage.

So, convincing Kimbo’s folks to side with you is an awesome idea, but it ain’t gonna work. All things being equal, you need Kimbo’s folks, and your folks, to show up in large amounts in the run-off… and Kimbo’s folks ain’t gonna show up for their second choice.

Turnout will go down slightly, say only 20%. That means that Banks will get 2464 votes. You’ll get 1120.

To beat Banks, you’ll need 1344 votes. That means you’ll need 80+% of Kimbo’s votes – which WON’T HAPPEN. Most of those folks won’t even show up for their second choice on the ballot.

Granted, a contentious Governor’s race featuring our long-term congressman might help, but it’s a long haul for Lutz to win the Super Bowl.

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