Our earlier prediction of a Lutz victory in the run-off against Banks will be incorrect. The numbers just don’t bear that out.

If Banks has the money to get his voters out to the polls again, he wins. He won’t need any of Lutz’ or Senter’s supporters to jump on-board. Since the turn-out will be much lighter, he just has to get the same people to vote the same way one more time.

Lutz however? He has to get his voters out again, plus convince some of Senter’s folks to back him, and then get those new recruits to show up at the polls for what is essentially their second-choice candidate. Much tougher.

Lutz can do it, but it’ll take more money than Banks’ task, and Banks is an incumbent that should find it easier to raise money.

If it were a close race, I’d bet on Lutz, but it’s a 15 point difference. That means he has to persuade a significant number of new people to vote for him while also getting them to, you know, actually vote. TOUGH task.

PREDICTION: Banks’ cruises with a 60% victory in the run-off. If Lutz can raise some serious $$$, these numbers could change- but there’s no indication that Lutz can swing that much lumber.